CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA (CVILLE RIGHT NOW) – Fans and media pundits have pointed to Virginia’s schedule as a reason for optimism as the football season approaches, labeling it one of the easiest in the ACC.
But do the Cavaliers and fourth-year coach Tony Elliott really have an easy path ahead of them?
It might depend on how you’re measuring.
UVA’s slate has them avoiding the four teams picked to finish atop the conference this year – Clemson, Miami, SMU and Georgia Tech. That certainly helps.
Their defense won’t have to slow down Cade Klubnik and the Tigers, Carson Beck and the Hurricanes, Keving Jennings and the Mustangs or Haynes King and the Yellow Jackets. Their offense won’t have to block Miami’s Rueben Bain Jr. or Clemson’s Peter Woods, or throw passes against SMU’s Isaiah Nwokobia.
In fact, of the 27 players named to the ACC’s preseason all-conference team, Virginia will only square off on the field with six of them.
Of the top five players in preseason player of the year voting, UVA misses Klubnik, King, Jennings and Beck. It only faces Virginia Tech’s Kyron Drones in the annual rivalry game to close out the regular season.
So, yes, the league’s most daunting opponents won’t line up against the Cavaliers in 2025.
But of the four highest-projected teams it does face this season – Louisville (picked fifth), Duke (sixth), Florida State (seventh) and North Carolina (eighth) – it has to go on the road to play three of them (Louisville, North Carolina and Duke), ramping up the difficulty level of those matchups.
Only four of the 12 teams on Virginia’s schedule finished last season with a winning record. Sounds easy enough.
But seven of them played in a bowl game.
Sounds a little tougher.
Those seven, went 1-6 in their postseason appearances.
And around and around we go.
Simply using where teams are projected in the league’s preseason media poll, often proven misguided just a few weeks into actual games, is flawed. After all, UVA was picked 14th in that poll, meaning it’s only expected to defeat Stanford, Wake Forest and Cal among its ACC opponents.
Using last year’s success or failure isn’t a dependable metric when you consider the massive roster upheaval most teams have undergone during the offseason. The transfer portal means a school’s 2024 team and its 2025 edition may like nothing alike.
Florida State went 2-10 last season, contributing heavily to UVA’s 2025 opponents shoddy combined record of 72-80.
Few if any are expecting the Seminoles to be equally abysmal this year. In fact, their Friday night appearance at Scott Stadium on Sept. 26 could be the moment Virginia truly reveals what kind of a team it has.
Sure, it’s fun for fans to break the schedule down into parts. Winnable games might include Coastal Carolina, William & Mary, Stanford, Washington State, Cal and Wake. A list of tossups might have North Carolina State, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech.
Tougher tasks could be in store against FSU, Louisville and Duke.
But here’s the other thing to remember. Virginia is 11-23 the past three seasons. So, fans in Conway, S.C., Williamsburg, Palo Alto, Berkeley and Winston-Salem are looking at games against the Cavaliers as so-called easy spots on their schedules.
One thing that does appear evident: The Cavaliers have a chance to get off to a good start, if they’re up to the challenge. They play four of their first five games at home.
Then again, sticking with the point-and-counterpoint ebb and flow, they started 4-1 last season, but found just one more victory the rest of the way. And Virginia is just 6-12 under Elliott.
So, is the prevailing narrative accurate? Does the schedule favor UVA this season?
It’s probably fair to see the Cavaliers should feel like they have a chance to win most of the games on the slate.
Just keep in mind, their opponents should feel the same way.
